How Opinion Polls Fooled Raila

Prior to the voting on August 9, several surveys had former prime minister Raila Odinga ahead of Deputy President William Ruto in the race to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.

A poll conducted by Infotrak just days before the election predicted that Azimio la Umoja, the candidate for president, would win the election in round one with 52% of the votes cast. It was anticipated that DP Ruto would receive 45%.


Additionally, according to the pollster, Raila was ranked first in more than 24 counties, whereas Ruto was first in only 17 of those same counties.

Wafula Chebukati at Bomas on 15Th August 2022

On the other hand, TIFA predicted that Raila would win with a 53% margin of victory. With 45%, Ruto placed second.

This wasn’t the case, though, as Wafula Wanyonyi Chebukati, the chairperson of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), declared the DP the winner and Raila the winner-elect.

Notably, just one significant polling organization had Odinga ahead of Ruto before the elections. The DP defeated Raila in two surveys conducted by Intel Research Solutions (IRS).

An August 1 poll by IRS predicted that Ruto would win with 50.5% of the vote. At 42.7%, the former premier came in second.

The dominance of Raila winning in the polls saw Ruto and his allies allege manipulation of the opinion polls in favour of Raila. 

At the time, they claimed that the government was manipulating Raila’s numbers to influence the voters. “We will finish these people politically.

How Opinion Polls Fooled Raila

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